Welcome to the first edition of the blog for Northeast Washington Trends! The blog captures the most recent updates to the indicators on the Northeast Washington Trends website, and will be sent out on a quarterly basis. Northeast Washington Trends would like to thank the Tri-county Economic Development District, Providence Medical, and other contributors for their support of the project.
Recent Updates
In PEOPLE:
Net migration into northeast Washington has slowed.
The 12 months between April 1 2024 and April 1 2025 yielded an increase of 405 “in-migrants” in the three counties, net of residents leaving. That’s according to the demographers at the Washington State Office of Financial Management. Population grows two ways: via a “natural increase” (births minus deaths) or net migration.
In the case of the three counties, the natural increase between this and last year was negative. So population in all three counties grew due only to in-migration. The number of new residents was the lowest in eight years. The recent peak took place in 2021 and 2022 (the pandemic), when the three counties combined welcomed 949 new residents.
As a share of the population for the 3 counties combined, net in-migration made up 0.6% of the population. In the four years prior, this share was considerably higher and, in fact, higher than the state average.
Click on the county “radio buttons” in the upper right of the graph to see individual counties.
The share of the population who are registered voters remains elevated in Northeast Washington.
One of the fundamental rights of American society is the ability to cast a ballot confidentially for one’s leaders and for or against various proposals. Voting is also an obligation. Consequently, one measure of the engagement of community is the level of registered voters. This indicator tracks this number as a share of the adult population (18+).
The share calculations, however, do not eliminate non-citizens or felons who have lost their right to vote. The Institute has no way of knowing these numbers accurately. Consequently, the calculated share is likely lower than the real share. But in northeast Washington, these caveats are likely quite small.
This year, 94% of eligible voters (by age) in the three counties were registered. As the graph shows, this is a far higher percentage than statewide, currently at 81%. However, the statewide adult population contains proportionally many more non-citizens than here.
Click on the county “radio buttons” in the upper right of the graph to see individual counties.
In ECONOMIC VITALITY:
Quarterly taxable retail sales have recently been robust in northeast Washington.
Taxable retail sales offer a reflection of the state of the “consumer economy”, plus the pace of construction, since most activities in that sector face a sales tax. And local jurisdictions depend on sales taxes for their general funds.
Over the past three quarters, Q4 2024 through Q2 2025, the pace in the three counties overall has bested the pace statewide. For the quarter ending most recently (July), year-over-year growth in the three counties combined was 6.9%, far above the state change of 3.3%. In the two prior quarters, the year-over-year growth rates were both 6.3%, again substantially above those of the state.
Click on the county “radio buttons” in the upper right of the graph to see individual counties.
The labor force is the sum of residents who are working or looking for work (unemployed). The participation rate, as measured in the Trends, is the ratio of the labor force to the county population 16 years and over. The size of the labor force provides an important dimension to the capacity of the economy.
The three-county labor force in 2024 was about 26,325. This represents a decline of nearly 600 from the peak in 2020. The participation rate last year also fell from 2020 – to 47% from 49%. The very low participation rate undoubtedly reflects a population that skews older.
Annual permitted residential building units gained traction last year; will 2025 repeat?
Residential construction is usually a pillar of the local economy, whether measured by jobs or dollars. Permitted units offer a window into near-term construction activities. The data from the U.S. Census cover both multi- and single-family construction. Last year marked the highest year of permitted units since 2007, the year before the financial crisis.
On a per capita basis, the number of permitted units over the past two years has been higher than the state average. And for several years, the “intensity” of permitted units in the three counties has been higher than the U.S. average.
Click on the county “radio buttons” in the upper right of the graph to see individual counties.
In EDUCATION:
Kindergarten readiness in the three counties has recovered from the pandemic.
For over a decade, in the fall of every year, incoming public school kindergarten students have been assessed in six domains on their readiness for school. Ideally, a young student is deemed ready in all six areas: cognitive, verbal, math, literacy, physical and socio emotional. This indicator tracks four assessment levels of readiness by the number of domains: all 6, in 4-5, in 3-4 or in 1-2.
For school year 2024-2025, over 57% of entering kindergarteners in the combined counties were deemed ready in all six domains. This represents a big jump from the cohorts assessed in the fall of 2021 and 2022 and the best showing in the history of the assessment (WaKIDS). Further, the share of local entering kindergarteners ready in all six domains is now higher than the state average – unique outcome for the eastern Washington counties.
In HEALTH:
Recipients of opioid prescriptions continue to trend steeply downward.
In the wake of the opioid crisis, an important policy that Washington State implemented is the requirement of pharmacies to report on a timely basis the number of patients who have received scripts for pain. This Trends indicator tracks the number on a quarterly basis, based on Department of Health data.
The decline of prescriptions per 1,000 residents has been dramatic since 2015. In the first quarter of that year, the number stood at 136 per 1,000 residents. Fast forward to the same quarter this year and the rate has more than halved, to 65 per 1,000 residents. Yet, this rate is still notably higher than Washington average of 44 per 1,000.
In HOUSING:
The All-buyer housing affordability index has recently inched up to “nearly affordable.”
A housing affordability index (HAI)is a ratio of income to mortgage costs. In this version, from the Real Estate Research Center at the University of Washington, median household income is the numerator. Specifically, it is 25% of this measure of income, reflecting a long-held assumption that this percentage provides the upper threshold of a household’s expenses for the dwelling to be “affordable.” The denominator reflects both current housing prices and interest rates for a 30-year mortgage. Finally, the analysis covers only re-sale, not new, homes.
A value of 100 implies a household has just enough income to meet the 25% threshold. A value above 100 indicates that it has more than enough income to afford current mortgage costs.
Unfortunately, the average HAI for the three counties has been below 100 since Q1 of 2022. The current (July) average value is 91. But it has risen several quarters in a row since mid-year 2024. The lowest value recorded, 72, was in Q2 of 2022.
Note that for the first part of the period shown, the average all-buyer HAI of the three counties came in much higher than the state average. The decline started in early 2017. Will the local market for the median buyer reach affordability again sometime soon?
The 1st-time buyer housing affordability index has recently advanced.
A housing affordability index (HAI)is a ratio of income to mortgage costs. In this version, from the Real Estate Research Center at the University of Washington, 75% of the area median household income is in the numerator. Specifically, it is 25% of this number, reflecting a long-held assumption that this percentage provides the upper threshold of a household’s expenses for the dwelling to be “affordable.” The denominator reflects both current housing prices, here at 85% of the current median, and interest rates for a 30-year mortgage. Finally, the analysis covers only re-sale, not new, homes.
A value of 100 implies a household has just enough income to meet the 25% threshold. A value above 100 indicates that it has more than enough income to afford current mortgage costs.
The most recent (Q2 of 2025) the1st-time buyer HAI was approximately 65. A year ago, it stood at 54, so improvement has occurred over the past 12 months. To find a time when housing for this slice of the population in the three counties was affordable, one needs to go back to the early quarters of the pandemic. Note that affordability is greater here than throughout the state, although the gap has narrowed over the past decade.
In PUBLIC SAFETY:
Property crimes in the three counties remain low and still (slightly) declining.
Property crimes reported to police departments and sheriff offices in 2024 fell to the second-lowest level on record: a combined 527 in the three counties. This represents a long, continuing decline since the peak in 2005, when the count stood at 1,866 (and with a lower population).
Since 2000 (and likely before) the rate per 1,000 residents has always been lower than the state rate. And unique to Trends communities throughout eastern Washington, the property crime rate of the combined three counties has consistently been lower than the national rate – usually by a wide margin.
list updated 11.18.25